Aftermath – Part 4

So, the Brewers Association has been surveying its membership about, basically, economics and the latest figures are pretty grim…

It’s that 46.4% number that is all that I can see. That means that brewery unemployment is going to spike here in April and May as owners wait by the mailbox for a check from the SBA. I’m not even counting that 15.2% number which are those in more dire straits. Current numbers from a survey of California breweries has Tom McCormick from the CCBA estimating that 15 to 20% of breweries will be gone in the next month or two with 5 to 10% more gone the rest of the year.

Wha would a world with 38.4% remaining breweries look like? Well, I would guess that sales and marketing would have a lot easier times fighting for shelf space. The booking of yoga and comedy and trivia would probably decrease too as extra measures won’t be needed. I would assume that the bigger regionals who had been hurting will love having a large distribution footprint as well when that void needs to be filled.

But it will mean suppliers from hops to cans to labels will have less market to pitch to and industry events might be a little fiercer because of it. Then there is the matter of all that expensive equipment. There will be no ready place for it. And I do not see a rush to take over spaces where fermenters are bolted down either so what kind of creative solution will emerge?

Last Year’s Sales

The Brewers Association released the sales numbers for last year, and normally I would post about it from the standpoint of California brewers or breweries entering or leaving the top 10 but this year, the numbers will need to be viewed against the 2020 numbers as well as the 2021 numbers before you can truly glean some insights.

I expect to see some churn in companies and quite possibly more CANarchy like groupings when we hit the post virus phase. I wrongly expected to see closures aplenty by now but the loans and financial measures seemed to have postponed those, though I still think fallout is coming. Unemployment numbers are going to really start to hurt, really soon. Unless Biden gets elected come November, I do not think there will be much long-term help for small business and especially a small business in California.

I sorely wish that I could do a pro forma, boring post about who is in the lead though.

YeastTube

White Labs supplies yeast to breweries practically everywhere but they are also known for their education. Their tasting room and same beer, different yeast trials are well known and now they are “launching an online education portal”. Mostly for brewers these “videos are released every month and cover a range of topics.” But maybe the casual beer fan might enjoy while hunkered down at home. Check out the videos HERE.

Federal Relief?

So, despite some light Republican siding with corporate interest resistance, the first of what may be many CoronaVirus bills has been signed into reality.

Phase 1 is about free testing, sick leave and expanding unemployment benefits.

Phase 2 would have small business loan assistance

Also, the Brewers Association is going to push their weight behind the following initiatives…

  • “A temporary suspension or deferral of federal excise taxes;
  • A waiver of penalties for payment of late excise tax fees;
  • A business tax credit for lost sales;
  • Flexibility in submitting amendments to licenses for current permit holders;
  • An increase in funding for Small Business Administration (SBA) Disaster Relief Assistance programs;
  • Deferment of SBA loan payments/no interest loans;
  • Deferment of payments with no interest accrual for loans with commercial lenders;
  • A freeze on premium increases for unemployment insurance;
  • Suspension of payroll taxes;
  • Compensation Fund.”

That list is taken from information from the BA and of those items, the last one is the most important. Breweries need a replacement cash flow and hopefully they can get it.

New Hops

As ever, Stan Hieronymus has the hop beat covered and he has unearthed a pair of new hops that you might see in the future. Personally, Akoya sounds the most interesting to me, “Two recently named hops reflect that. Solero, previously known as #243/42, comes from the crafty line and the aroma is described as containing tropical fruits, mango and passion fruit. It is a cross between Cascade and a Hopsteiner male and grown primarily in Germany. Akoya, #99/268, is a cross between Zenith (a 1980s product of the Wye breeding program) and a Hopsteiner male. Its aroma is described as tea, spicy, green fruits and pepper, and it is considered a substitute for Perle or Halltertau Traditon.”

Mikkeller Down

I wasn’t expecting this news. Not with the Lakers-Clippers-Kings keeping Staples Center busy and considering that the brand is opening in Portland. They had a nice city chain working up the coast and now it is broken.

I don’t know if the space was too big or the coffee shop / bottle shop was not pulling people in but the few times that I went, there were crowds. It wasn’t the typical uncrowded restaurant that you can tell is not going to last.

This all being said without knowledge of the franchise style that operates the San Francisco and formerly L.A. locations. It is a loss that combined with Mega Bodega leaving last year in the same area that does not bode well for craft beer.

Maybe they can find a new location, plenty of mixed use space in the condos of Glendale.

The State of State Brewing

Sad news hit yesterday….

This was not the brewery that I thought would call it a day first in 2020. Not that I have a Arya Stark type list but State Brewing had both a quality of beer and a wide range of beer and enough hits in the top style categories that I thought would insulate them from financial trouble and keep them above the Mendoza line as it were. This is a blow for sure and even the most rosy hued (like me) won’t be able to wipe this away with a “this is an opportunity for another brewery” sentiment.

But this is not a triggering event. The competition is tough and capitalization is on a case by case basis so do not worry that a cascade of closures will ensue. Some times, you just have to walk away from the table.

Science Grants

The Brewers Association has selected the 2020 recipients of its Research and Service Grants Program. This funding, which began back in 2015, funds research into science that will effect brewers and how they make beer. This year the Brewers Association parceled out 13 grants totaling $389,370 to thirteen projects (8) barley and (4) hops projects, and in a change one draught quality project which I found a pleasant surprise. Overall, in six years, this program has invested over $2 million for research.

Below are the (4) that I think will have the most future impact on consumers in the years to come:

Controlling Hop Enzymatic Potential – Hop Kilning and Brewery Treatments

  • Partner(s): Oregon State University
  • Principal(s): Thomas Shellhammer

Analysis of Various Metabolites in Hops as Potential Key Parameter for Thiol and Ester Release by Yeast During Beer Fermentation

  • Partner(s): Nyseos, Barth-Haas Group
  • Principal(s): Laurent Dagan, Christina Schoenberger

Deeper Explorations of Barley and Terroir Contributions to Beer Flavor

  • Partner(s): Oregon State University
  • Principal(s): Pat Hayes

Evaluation of Biofilm Growth in Chemically Treated Beer Draught Tubing

  • Partner(s): Montana State University, Center for Biofilm Engineering
  • Principal(s): Darla Goeres

Bru-1

I think we will be seeing a lot of the Strata hop in 2020 but another hop that has momentum potential is Bru-1. It is a new experimental hop developed by John I. Hass and Brulotte Farms (hence the 3 letter initials).

Yakima Valley hops puts these descriptors on the hop, “aromas of pineapple and stone fruit that is backed by a soft spice” and it is being featured in a new IPA from Stone, Lupulin Loop so it must have enough inventory to be in an IPA from a bigger distribution footprint.

Trident

No, not the gum or the three-pronged spear. This is a new hop blend just released as of last week from Hopsteiner.

The blend is a mix of (3) Pacific NW hops. According to Hopsteiner, it “is a blend developed for those seeking a hop-forward punch to the nose – fruity, citrus, tropical, passion fruit combination to fit any beer style. Using Trident™ is sure to cast a much wider range of aroma and flavor characteristics than any single hop variety could generate on its own.”

That is not the most appealing image I have ever seen (why is there a tomato in the lower left corner?) but the point is strongly made that this will be a “fruit wave”. Now we wait to see how well this plays in the marketplace. Will it burst like Citra or have more of a slow boil like Strata?