Since today is Back to the Future Day, the day where Marty McFly saves the day with the help of Doc Brown and some Gigawatts, I thought it appropriate to write down what I think are trends that I see developing.
Bad Mouthing Beer Quality – We all know that not all beer is created equal. Some is bad. But we all will soon hear more and read more about the bad beer in the coming months. The Brewer’s Association gave it’s tacit approval when it exhorts members to be quality conscious and that trickles through the system to the point where names start getting named. Up until now, most criticism is done on the low-down. Either because the community is too tight-knit to criticize or because the community is too small and needs encouragement. As each craft beer scene grows and matures, the community ties fray and the need for “any” brewery is curtailed. I think the open naming of breweries to avoid will become more brazen.
More Private Equity Money in the System – Brewery owners are paying attention. If you want to protect your brand as craft, then you had better avoid the full fire sale. Not only will it get you kicked to the Brewer’s Association curb, you also get a social media earful of how horrible you are as a person to sell your brewery. Your better options are selling part of the company (The Founders-Lagunitas Way), partnering with high class – large pockets breweries (The Duvel Way) or getting private equity (The Banker Way). Beer Geeks tend to be myopic unless you are ABInBev or SABMiller so you can slide Private Equity through without too much grumbling because most people aren’t reading the Financial Times or the Wall Street Journal that regularly. More will head down that road.
Hops, Hops and Hops – This train just keeps rumbling. The demand just keeps growing like new hop varietals. Session IPA’s were the it beer last year and I do believe that we are due for another style for GABF to consider next year. I don’t know what it will be but I have a feeling light and hoppy ain’t over yet. I would not be at all surprised to see Hoppy Gruits. But a better bet might be hoppy Belgian Singles or hoppy ambers.
Less Fests – There are festivals galore but I think that the bloom is off the rose for the general all-purpose festival. That doesn’t mean that they won’t sell if done properly because there is a solera effect of new people becoming craft converts and getting excited about a festival that a jaded scribe like myself has no time for but I think the boom cycle is done and we are moving into the long tail of decline. I have been to some events (even good ones) where the crowds have been sparse. By now, especially in L.A., the festivals to go to have been pretty much set in concrete. Others can be skipped unless they have a theme or idea that really grabs the imagination.
I have no crystal ball but in talking to people and attending events and reading, these are the items that I think just might happen. Talk to me next year at this time to see if I am crazy.
Peel the Label is an occasional series where I opine about the big picture of craft beer and blogging without photos, videos or links.
